Analysis and forecast of the hottest PVC market in

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Analysis and prediction of China's PVC market


in terms of the overall situation of domestic manufacturers, the overall price remains relatively stable. The prices of various models of products remained relatively stable. Qilu Petrochemical: PVC production is reduced by 700 tons, and the planned output is 20300 tons; The caustic soda reduction is 1000 tons, and the plan is 18000 tons. Hebei Baoshuo: PVC prices have rebounded this week. Russian resin in surrounding areas decreased. Bank of China electrochemical: PVC supply and demand are normal this week, and the price is stable. Beijing Chemical II: the production is normal, and the PVC price is reduced. Xi'an Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.: maintenance and start-up are resumed, and no formal products have been released yet. Haval: PVC sales are good, and other flat sales

market situation

the mainstream price market in Xiamen is 5800 yuan/ton ~5900 yuan/ton; The high model market is 6000 yuan/ton ~ 6200 yuan/ton, and the ethylene method price market is 5900 yuan/ton ~ 6000 yuan/ton; Carbide method large factory market 5850~5900 yuan/ton; The demand rebounded slightly, but the manufacturers were cautious in purchasing goods. They bought more at low prices and less at high prices to adjust the inventory status. The operating rate has not increased much. However, the selection of raw materials for pipe factories is not limited to calcium carbide method or ethylene method. There are the lowest grade miscellaneous brands that can be used to produce pipes. There are many miscellaneous brands in Southern Fujian and few imported brands. The mainstream price of Shantou market is 5700 yuan/ton; Ethylene process price market 5800 yuan/ton carbide process large plant market ② For a fixture with a small experimental force, 5800 yuan/ton; The supporting equipment of the project includes (1+4) hot continuous rolling production line (single 3300mm Hot Roughing Mill and four 2850mm hot finishing mills) and the market is 5600 yuan/ton ~ 5650 yuan/ton; In recent days, PVC goods of western small calcium carbide method have been arriving continuously, and the manufacturers have purchased less and more times. Due to the reason of commencement, the purchase is slightly more than that in the early stage. The import situation is that the transaction of Indonesian goods is 1200 yuan/ton, usd530/ton, 90 days l/c. The transaction price of South African flour is usd530/ton, and the quantity is large and unknown. Shantou market has many local market prices and various brands. The mainstream price of Wenzhou market is 5800 yuan/ton ~5850 yuan/ton in ethylene market 5900 yuan/ton in carbide Market 5700 yuan/ton ~5800 yuan/ton; Due to the threat of typhoon senlac, rainstorms in Wenzhou and Taizhou have caused disasters, and work stoppages in the past two days have affected the feeding, and the market price has remained basically unchanged. The mainstream price market in Guangzhou is 5800 yuan/ton ~ 5900 yuan/ton, and the ethylene market is 5900 yuan/ton ~ 5950 yuan/ton; Carbide process large plant market 5800 yuan/ton ~ 5850 carbide process small plant market 5700 yuan/ton; Last week, the trading volume was large, and the shipment speed slowed down significantly this week. The reason is that the manufacturers purchased more goods in the last two weeks, and this week they were in the state of consuming inventory. Large factories pressed prices with low prices, and purchased goods. The import price decreased by 530 dollars/ton CIF, and the import trading volume increased slightly

in September, the domestic market remained stable on the whole. Prices in some regions in the South have increased. Although the downstream processing enterprises do not receive goods to a large extent, the inventory of each manufacturer is not high, and it is still in a normal state. The inventory of downstream processing enterprises and traders is also low. The market situation last week can be analyzed as follows: 1. Market supply and demand tend to balance. At the end of August, the domestic market supply increased compared with the same period last year, but the demand also increased accordingly. The monthly import volume in 2002 is estimated to be 1.2 million tons (1.09 million tons per month), a decrease of 110000 tons from 1.31 million tons in the same period last year. However, in 2002, the monthly domestic output was estimated to be 2.15 million tons (1.87 million tons per month), an increase of 340000 tons over 1.81 million tons in the same period last year. In 2002, the monthly market supply (output + import) was 3.35 million tons, an increase of 250000 tons or 8% over 3.1 million tons in the same period last year. This is close to the growth rate of PVC consumption in China in recent years and the economic growth rate in the first half of this year. Therefore, it can be considered that although the domestic output increased rapidly, the import volume decreased sharply after May, and the growth of demand is an objective and inevitable development trend. On the whole, supply and demand are tending to balance. As long as this state continues, the domestic PVC market will begin a virtuous cycle. With the formation of the peak season and the gradual consumption of the resources of this batch of products, which are unqualified products, the supply will be tight. This can also explain the current low domestic inventory

2. The market price tends to be stable. The domestic market price has been rolling up and down at 6000 yuan/ton for more than two months since July, but it has never broken through the 6000 yuan mark. The reason is that the price of ethylene method is still very different from that of calcium carbide method. The ex factory quotation of ethylene production plant has always been at yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is lower than the quotation. The factory price of calcium carbide method large factory is yuan/ton, while calcium carbide can greatly improve the measurement and control function of the experimental machine. The small factory of calcium carbide method is only yuan/ton. The existence of low-priced goods makes the market psychology fluctuate, causing negative effects. The purchase consciousness is not strong, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the market is depressed. If the price of calcium carbide method does not rise, the whole PVC market price is difficult to rise

3. There are signs of demand amplification. Judging from the situation last week, especially in the southern region, the import price is high and the volume is small, and the downstream purchase volume and dealer warehousing volume are gradually enlarged. It should be a welcome change from wait-and-see to warehousing

4. The price of raw materials for ethylene process remains high. The chlorine price in the United States rose steadily in the first half of the year and stabilized after reaching $250/ton in July. After the price of caustic soda fell to a low point, it also rose in the country, rising from US dollars/ton to 120 US dollars/ton, rising to 120 US dollars/ton, and the normal level should reach 200 US dollars/ton. However, the recovery of alkali price often makes the chlorine price balance downward. In addition, the price of ethylene is also rising, and the domestic PVC price in the United States has risen to US dollars/ton. Market analysis believes that the price has been reported and will be corrected to a certain extent. In this case, the EDC price will eventually fall, but it will not happen in the near future. VCM prices will not drop significantly. The United States exports edc350 dollars/ton CFR to Asia, and the cost of PVC produced at this price is higher than 6000 yuan/ton. Although the VCM price has decreased, it is still in US dollars/ton CFR China. The overall domestic situation this week remained stable. The mainstream price of ethylene is at yuan/ton, which is 100 yuan lower than that of last week; Except for a few enterprises in Northeast China, the price of calcium carbide method is at yuan/ton, and other enterprises are at yuan/ton, which is basically the same as last week. The prices of enterprises are mixed, most of which are based on delivery prices. Although it failed to maintain stability, it fell slightly, which to some extent shows that the market confidence is insufficient, and the popularity needs to be further gathered. But at the same time, there is no sign of weakness in a large area, which shows that buyers have not left the market to wait and see, and will continue to stabilize the situation relatively. At the same time, there are two sides, and a small adjustment is also preparing for a possible rebound. At present, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the courage of buyers and sellers to catch up is very scarce, which is mainly subject to the space and high degree of doubt about the market. In addition, the absence of hot spots that can really stimulate sentiment and lead the market is another heavy factor that puzzles the market trend. But an indisputable fact shows that the market environment has changed compared with the previous period, and the mentality of buyers and sellers is also very different. I believe that with the passage of time, the continuous correction of the price gap between buyers and sellers, international and domestic prices, I believe that the market is also pregnant. Of course, how the market will be developed is of great concern to the industry. And this is the time to test confidence and patience. Overall, the domestic market situation is becoming clearer, and the key is still to enhance our confidence in the market. The current indicator product is whether the price of calcium carbide PVC can rise

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