Analysis on price changes of the hottest corrugate

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Analysis on price changes of corrugated and box board paper

[China Packaging News] since 2019, the domestic corrugated and box board paper market prices have shown a trend of first rising and then falling. In January, the paper prices mainly rose in shock. Firstly, due to the rising price of raw material waste paper, the paper enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices supported by the increase in costs. Secondly, during the Spring Festival, there were many paper enterprises that stopped for maintenance, and the market supply was slightly tight. In addition, it is in the downstream stock season around the Spring Festival, and the market demand performance is acceptable. After March, with the launch of new capacity and the weakening of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has intensified, and the paper price has begun to enter the downward channel. According to the statistics on the huge pollution to our environment, as of March 27, the monthly average price of corrugated paper nationwide in March was 3833 yuan/ton, down 1 month on month, providing polycarbonate buffer between titanium alloy endplates 58%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.43%; The monthly average price of box board paper nationwide was 4567 yuan/ton, down 1.05% month on month and 10.64% year on year

1. Cause analysis of price change

change in the price of waste paper as the first raw material. Since 2019, the price of foreign waste has fallen sharply. At present, for example, the price of foreign waste OCC is quoted in USD/ton, which is more than 50% lower than last year's high. The decline in the price of foreign waste has also put great pressure on the price of domestic waste. The price of raw material waste paper fell, and the positive cost support weakened

the second new production capacity is gradually put into operation, and the market supply is increasing. Shandong Bohui Paper Co., Ltd. has put into operation the corrugated paper project with an annual capacity of 750000 tons as scheduled since March 8, and Henan Longyuan Paper Co., Ltd. has started to put into operation the project with an annual capacity of 200000 tons of carton paper since March 12. The production of the above new projects has brought greater supply pressure to the market

the demand of the third market has weakened. In March this year, the market demand was more light than in previous years. Affected by the increasing downward pressure of the economy, the downstream packaging enterprises were short of orders. Therefore, their enthusiasm for purchasing corrugated and box board paper was weakened, resulting in increased inventory pressure on paper enterprises

fourth, the VAT rate is reduced. From April 1, the value-added tax rate will be reduced by 3 percentage points to 13%, because the paper packaging market is in the buyer's market, especially in the case of high supply pressure, which will lead to the positive profit sharing and promotion phenomenon in the sales of corrugated and box board

2. The later trend forecast

the current trading atmosphere in the corrugated and box board market is still not prosperous, and it is difficult for the paper price to rise in the second quarter. First of all, from the perspective of raw waste paper, although the import of foreign waste is expected to decrease, however, the operation of the domestic waste market is still weak, mainly due to narrow range shocks. Therefore, it is difficult to form a strong support for the composition and working principle of the servo control system in the corrugated and box board market in terms of cost. Secondly, some paper enterprises still have plans to launch new projects, which will further increase the competitive pressure in the market. The supply pressure will be relieved in a short time. In addition, in order to seize customer resources, new products will inevitably have a fierce price war. Again, the second quarter was the traditional weak quarter of the industry. In the third quarter, the packaging enterprises were not willing to stock a large amount of corrugated and box board paper due to insufficient orders, and the inventory level of paper enterprises may be at a relatively high level. Looking at the upstream and downstream markets, it is difficult to find positive factors. Therefore, it is expected that the corrugated and box board market in the second quarter will continue to be dominated by weak operation, and the price will mainly fluctuate slightly in a stable manner

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