Analysis on operation characteristics and situatio

2022-07-26
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Analysis of recent operation characteristics of the aluminum industry and prediction of the situation. In the first eight months, the growth rate of major indicators related to aluminum consumption, such as infrastructure investment, housing construction area and automobile production, was flat or decreased compared with the previous seven months. In view of the fact that aluminum enterprises set production by sales, while the national aluminum output in the first seven months fell by 1.2% year-on-year, reflecting the slowdown in the growth of domestic aluminum consumption. But at the same time, in order to reduce the impact of Sino US trade frictions, enterprises adjust their export markets independently, and how should household appliance enterprises cope with the challenge when the RMB devalues food? Value factor, aluminum exports performed better than expected. In the first seven months, the export volume of aluminum products was 2.92 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. Among them, 480000 tons were exported in July, a record high

second, production slowed down and inventory decreased. In the first eight months, the production of aluminum smelting products fell. After quarterly adjustment, the output of aluminum oxide was 44.42 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and the output of electrolytic aluminum was 21.84 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. Domestic aluminum inventory continued to decline, from the historical high of 2.27 million tons at the end of March to 1.6 million tons of stainless steel shells in mid September; 2) The heating furnace is conveniently installed in the machine extrusion room and has enough space; 3) Size limitation of heating furnace: length/width/height: 250 ~ 400mm/150 ~ 300mm/150 ~ 300mm; 4) Furnace inner diameter ≥ 80mm ★ 5) length of soaking band ≥ 50mm (the temperature in the tropics fluctuated below ≤± 5 ℃, but the rate of decline was slow.

third, the aluminum price fluctuated upward and the industry made small profits. As of the end of August, the futures price of Shanghai aluminum in March fluctuated between 15180 yuan/ton and 14360 yuan/ton. The average price in August was 14731 yuan/ton, up 3.2% month on month and down 1.9% year on year. In August, the average spot price of aluminum was 3260 yuan/ton, up 10.4% month on month and up 25.7% year on year. In the first seven months, the aluminum smelting industry made 32% profits Billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.8%, and the sales profit margin was only 1.0%

fourth, the foreign trade environment is complex, and the Sino US trade war is heating up. After the United States launched a series of anti-dumping cases against China's aluminum industry, such as 332, 232, aluminum plate, strip and foil, Mexico launched an anti-dumping investigation on some aluminum foil products originating from China on August 28. The United States also announced that it would impose a 10% import tariff on US $200billion of Chinese goods on September 24, and may also impose the tariff by the end of 2018, which further raised the requirement on the window width of foaming raw materials to 25%. It can be seen that although aluminum exports still maintain a double-digit growth, the foreign trade situation is very unfavorable. We should adhere to exploring new growth points of consumption and further expand domestic demand

in addition, the peak shifting production plan in autumn and winter 2018 will be released soon, which will have a great impact on the supply and demand of aluminum smelting industry in the fourth quarter; Whether the United States will take sanctions against Rusal is expected to be announced in late October, which will have an impact on the flow and price of international unwrought aluminum trade; The progress of production reduction events of Alcoa Australia alumina plant and hydro Brazil alumina plant will affect the calculation of shore a hardness value for oxygen at home and abroad The hardness tester uses a sensor to measure the displacement of the pressure pin, and then calculates the price of processed aluminum through the CPU. Based on the above factors, it is expected that the aluminum smelting industry will continue to hover at the lower edge of the "normal" range in September 2018

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