Analysis on investment opportunities of six major

2022-07-24
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Analysis and prediction of investment opportunities in six major industries such as petrochemical industry in 2006

the stock market in January 2006 undoubtedly made a good start. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index started from 1161 points and went all the way to the 1250 point integer level. However, the first annual report in 2006 did not seem to add a useful footnote to such a good day. Yesterday, after the annual report of Hongcheng water industry was issued, the stock price fell instead of rising, which was disappointing

securities investment focuses on the development prospects of enterprises. What are the development prospects of various industries in 2006? What are the performance expectations of key listed companies? What are the investment opportunities in the secondary market worth paying attention to

Beijing modern business daily specially invited experts from relevant industries to comment on key sectors

petrochemicals pay attention to the opportunities of share reform

when it comes to investment opportunities, we must pay attention to the upstream and downstream industries related to energy. In the past year, the soaring oil price has taught us a vivid lesson about the energy crisis. At the same time, the high oil price has benefited the related companies a lot. Far from it, Sinopec, the petrochemical stock, is the leader leading the market to reach 1250 points

according to the forecast data from China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the output value of China's petroleum and chemical industry may reach 3300 billion yuan and the profit will reach 380billion yuan in 2005, an increase of 33.8% and 36% respectively over 2004

the Association believes that the international crude oil price in 2006 is still likely to remain at a high level of $60. Thanks to this, China's oil and natural gas industry will still maintain the trend of substantial growth in benefits, while the oil refining industry is likely to continue to face huge cost pressure, and the losses will be difficult to reverse in the short term

Xiangcai Securities believes that for the petrochemical sector, in 2006, we should first pay attention to the investment opportunities of Sinopec subsidiaries brought by the share reform. Among them, Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical with relatively simple equity structure and several companies with small equity may be the first to be acquired by tender offer, such as oil Daming, petrochemical, Taishan oil, etc., which investors can give priority to

For a long time, real estate companies have been criticized for two reasons: on the one hand, the past five years have been the hottest five years in China's real estate industry. However, this popularity is out of proportion to the return given to investors by listed companies, which is one of the reasons; On the other hand, the real estate tycoon on the Forbes 100 rich list is like a crucian carp crossing the river, and there is no one on the top 100 tax payers list. It is difficult not to let people bear grudges because they demand more and return less

now, I'm afraid the good days of real estate tycoons are coming to an end. Zhang Yin, chief analyst of Beijing Hujie Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., pointed out that this year will be a year when the prosperity of China's real estate market will break away from the high point of the cycle and enter the cycle. The biggest pressure facing the real estate industry is to adjust interest rates. On the other side of the Pacific, old man Greenspan finally poured out the false fire of the real estate industry by raising interest rates more than a dozen times. The euro zone will follow closely. Not long ago, European Central Bank President Trichet hinted that the euro may raise interest rates. In this case, it is difficult for China to be alone. Once it enters the interest rate rise cycle, real estate will be the first to be affected

among all listed real estate companies, Oct holdings is the most respected company of Guotai Junan. Analysts believe that only enterprises with the advantage of land acquisition can survive in the future industrial adjustment. As OCT is "an area with a good geographical location in China's economically developed cities, it can obtain a large number of land reserves for the development of medium - and high-grade commercial housing", this advantage gradually appears over time

nonferrous metal prices continue to rise

in 2005, international commodity prices rose sharply, not only the price of crude oil rose alarmingly, but also copper, aluminum, tin, nickel and other mineral products. Take copper for example. In the three years since 2003, the international market price of copper has risen from US $1500 to US $4620 per ton. Aluminum is not to be outdone, and the price has risen from the initial US $1340 per ton to US $2427. The continuous surge in non-ferrous metal prices has benefited relevant listed companies

according to the research report from China Nonferrous Metals Research Association, China's copper demand is expected to reach 3.8 million tons in 2006, an increase of 8%; The demand for electrolytic aluminum was 7.1 million tons, an increase of 9%. Domestic production of copper, aluminum and other major non-ferrous metals will also continue to increase. It is estimated that the copper output will reach about 2.7 million tons in 2006. The original new material technology is lack of simple support beam in terms of structure, with an increase of 8%; The output of electrolytic aluminum was more than 8million tons, with an increase of more than 6.7%. It is estimated that the domestic copper supply gap in 2006 will be about 1.3 million tons; However, there is still a surplus of about 900000 tons of electrolytic aluminum

the analysts of Beijing Shoufang pointed out that at present, there are more than 30 standard non-ferrous metal stocks in the two cities. The overall market positioning of this sector is not high. The average dynamic P/E ratio is 12.22 times, and the investment value is very outstanding under the consideration expectation of the share reform. Among them, Tongdu copper, Hongda, Yunnan Copper and Zhongjin Lingnan are the most representative

taking Tongdu copper industry as an example, Tongling, where the company is located, is rich in copper resources, with 1.8 million tons of metal reserves, an average grade of 10.46%, and associated with valuable substances such as gold, silver and iron. At the same time, Dongguashan Copper Mine is also associated with a large number of valuable resources such as iron, gold, silver and sulfur. With the full production of Dongguashan Copper Mine, the pellet iron capacity of Tongdu copper industry will increase by 170000 tons, gold by 800 kg, silver by 8000 kg and sulfuric acid by 1.05 million tons

analysts believe that at present, the P/E ratio of Tongdu copper industry is only about 10 times, lower than the average level of the same industry, and there is still much room for growth in the future

the overall profit of textile and clothing fell

industry experts believe that under the comprehensive effect of various factors, the export of China's textile and clothing industry has shown a weak trend. Although the textile export tariff will be stopped from January 1 next year, the short-term favorable factors are difficult to change the trend of the decline of the industry prosperity. Among them, the main factor leading to the decline of the industry prosperity is the RMB appreciation policy. In addition, the transition period of China's accession to the WTO is coming to an end, and many adverse factors such as the reduction of domestic cotton production have come unexpectedly, which also makes the situation of the textile and clothing industry not optimistic this year

some research institutions pointed out that although the suspension of export tax will reduce the export costs of relevant enterprises, the bid winning prices of 21 textile export quotas exported to the United States in 2006 are high, which will raise the overall export costs to a certain extent. Therefore, some research institutions believe that the profit growth of the textile industry in 2006 will fall back, and the overall profit margin will fall to between 2.5%-3.1%

Huaxin Securities pointed out that at present, there are more than 60 listed companies in the textile and clothing sector, concentrating a large number of leading enterprises in the domestic textile industry, including clothing stocks such as Hongdou, Youngor and Shanshan, as well as upstream Fabric Companies in the textile industry such as Zhejiang Furun, black peony and Lutai a. Investors should focus on listed companies with independent brands, high-tech content and unique products. For example, Zhejiang Furun deserves active attention. The company is mainly engaged in silk and silk spinning products. Due to the particularity of its products, these silk and silk spinning products have strong export competition and development potential in the European and American markets

the prospect of communication technology is generally expected

the technology sector is a fairly broad concept, and Morgan Stanley analysts classify it as a large industry with Internet/media and telecommunications. They believe that in the coming year, the industry will also have the highest growth and the best return on investment. The telecom sector is still a defensive option, but after rising in 2005, its overall upward space is limited. However, as the mainstream view is too optimistic about the stocks with domestic 3G concept, Morgan Stanley, a thermoplastic unidirectional belt processing technology, maintains a cautious view on the equipment manufacturing sector

Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the earnings of this sector will be raised as a whole. Even leaving aside the recovery of mobile value-added services, the Internet/media sector will also benefit from the growth of search, online games and the increasingly popular e-commerce business of small and medium-sized enterprises

among the relevant listed companies, Morgan Stanley is optimistic about ZTE. They predict that ZTE will receive about US $40million in 3G project orders in 2006. This is mainly 1. In some parts design manuals and Monographs on experimental machine manufacturing, there are orders from test networks installed in various places. Even if the 3G license is issued in mid-2006, it may take years for the system to fully cover the whole country. Therefore, Morgan Stanley believes that its 3G revenue will not be gradually reflected until. However, ZTE's expected revenue of US $500million in 3G will still give investors in the A-share market a huge imagination

the prospect of medical reform in the pharmaceutical industry is unpredictable

bird flu and foot-and-mouth disease have pushed pharmaceutical concept stocks to the forefront of the stock market. The government has increased investment in medical insurance and reorganized the medical system, bringing development opportunities to pharmaceutical enterprises. The brewing reform of the medical system and the price reduction of drugs in the medical insurance catalogue are the "sword of Damocles" hanging over pharmaceutical enterprises

industrial securities analysts believe that in the long run, only those enterprises with differentiated competitive advantages, such as innovative R & D capabilities, technological advantages, unique brand value, product marketing capabilities, can stand out from the competition in the future

Industrial Securities rated the whole industry as "neutral". For the investment opportunities in 2006, they are more optimistic about Hengrui pharmaceutical, Guangzhou Pharmaceutical, Tongrentang, Yunnan Baiyao and other white horse stocks; From the perspective of excess return, they are optimistic about Fosun Pharmaceutical, Lizhu group, Jinling pharmaceutical and other stocks whose values are temporarily undervalued

take Hengrui medicine strongly recommended by industrial securities as an example. The company is the largest manufacturer of anti-tumor drug chemicals in China. Its first generic drug with independent intellectual property rights, irecoxib, has entered phase II clinical research, and three generic drugs, quinolones, respiratory tract and anti-tumor, will enter clinical research in early 2006. In addition, the company has more than 10 generic drugs under development covering 6 major fields

it is predicted that the performance per share of Hengrui pharmaceutical in 2005, 2006 and 2007 will reach 0.62 yuan, 0.79 yuan and 0.98 yuan respectively

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their contents

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